紐時賞析／全美遊民似逆勢減少

紐約時報收集的當地數據顯示，芝加哥無家可歸人數在拜登政府執政最後一年減少60%。圖爲2024年3月芝加哥一處遊民的臨時營地。紐約時報

Homelessness Appears to Decline, Reversing a Yearslong Trend

全美遊民似逆勢減少

Homelessness appears to have fallen in the last year of the Biden administration, according to local counts reported to the federal government but not yet released under President Donald Trump, an analysis of the local data shows.

根據地方政府回報給聯邦政府、美國總統川普尚未公佈的統計數據分析，美國在拜登政府最後1年，無家可歸人口似乎下降。

A large sample of the counts, taken in January 2025 and compiled by The New York Times, suggests the homeless population shrank by tens of thousands of people nationwide from the record level set the previous year, though the number remained high by historical norms.

紐約時報2025年1月收集並彙整的大規模數據樣本顯示，儘管全美無家可歸人口數案歷史標準來看仍很高，但數量相較於前年的歷史高點少了上萬人。

The tally includes jurisdictions that typically contain about two-thirds of homeless people, making it a meaningful if inexact preview of the national count, which the government has normally published by now.

統計數據涵蓋的司法管轄區通常包括3分之2的無家可歸人口，因此儘管這份數據預覽報告不完全精確，但仍有意義，而政府通常在此時已公佈相關數據。

“A sample of this size shows there’s been a decline in homelessness across the country,” said Dennis P. Culhane, an expert on homelessness data at the University of Pennsylvania who reviewed the figures at the Times’ request. For nearly two decades, Culhane helped lead the research team that compiled the nationwide count.

賓州大學無家可歸人口數據專家柯翰在紐時的請求下審閱這些數據。他說：「如此規模的樣本顯示，全美無家可歸人口數有所下降。」20年來，柯翰協助領導彙集全美這類數據的團隊。

A national drop in homelessness would be the first in eight years.

若全國層級的無家可歸人口確實下降，將是近8年來首度出現。

While the count is usually announced in December, a spokesperson for the Department of Housing and Urban Development said that “there is no standard timeline” for its release and declined to say when it would be made public.

儘管相關統計通常在12月公佈，美國住房與城市發展部發言人表示，發佈時間「並沒有固定時程」，並拒絕說明何時會對外公開。

Trump has cited record levels of homelessness in calling for tough new policies. Evidence that homelessness fell before Trump took office may complicate the rancorous debate.

川普曾以無家可歸人口創新高爲由，主張更強硬新政策；若證據顯示他上任前相關問題已緩解，勢必使這場激烈的政治論戰更加複雜。

Although the measure covers the last year of the Biden administration, some conservatives say it vindicates Trump’s get-tough call for camping bans, which many jurisdictions had already adopted. Critics of Trump’s plans note homelessness fell fastest in cities hit by an earlier surge of asylum-seekers, suggesting the record spike was anomalous and temporary.

儘管這項數據統計涵蓋拜登政府執政的最後1年，但有些保守派人士表示，這證明川普強硬的露宿禁令是正確的，許多地方政府已採取相關措施。川普政策的批評者指出，無家可歸人口下降最快的城市，往往曾因庇護尋求者人數激增而出現短期暴衝，顯示先前的高峰可能只是異常且暫時的現象。

Nearly 400 local groups, called continuums of care, conduct the “Point in Time” counts in January and submit the numbers to HUD. With figures from areas that usually hold about two-thirds of the unhoused population, the sample collected by the Times found homelessness falling 7%.

被稱爲「延續照護體系」的近400個當地團體在1月進行「特定時段」的人口清點，並將數據提交給美國住房與城市發展部。紐約時報收集的樣本涵蓋了通常容納約3分之2無家可歸人口的地區；依這些數據，無家可歸人口下降了7%。

Culhane, noting the Times’ sample overweighted big cities with steep declines, projected a nationwide decline of 3% to 5%.

柯翰指出，紐約時報的樣本對於降幅較大的大城市佔比偏高，因此他推估，全國層級的下降幅度可能落在 3%至5%。

“That is still the first drop in many years and one of the most significant on record,” he said.

他說：「這仍是多年來無家人口首次下滑，也是有史以來最顯著的降幅之一。」

文／Jason DeParle，譯／羅方妤

延伸閱讀